95 percent shared, autonomous and electric by 2030
Thirteen years from now, self-driving electric vehicles will make up the vast majority of cars on U.S. roads, according to independent think tank RethinkX. The Californian company recently published a report entitled “Rethinking Transportation 2020-2030: The Disruption of Transportation and the Collapse of the Internal-Combustion Vehicle and Oil Industries”.
This report forecasts that 95 percent of all U.S. passenger miles travelled will be served by on-demand autonomous electric vehicles owned by fleets, in a new business model called ‘Transport-as-a-service’ (TaaS). RethinkX predicts a massive disruption, threatening conventional players in the industry but also creating considerable opportunities.
Cars will be operated and owned by ride-hailing companies and be used at least ten times more than privately owned vehicles. Remarkably, the lifecycle of the vehicles would increase to 500,000 or even 1 million miles, while maintenance, energy, finance and insurance costs would decrease significantly.
As a result, transport-as-a-service would offer vastly lower-cost transport alternatives four to ten times cheaper per mile than buying a new car and two to four times cheaper than operating an existing vehicle in 2021. Ass with any technology disruption, adoption is expected to grow along an exponential S-curve.
Picture copyright: Volvo Cars, 2017 | 19/05/2017 | Dieter Quartier